To Trust, Or Not To Trust

To Trust, Or Not To Trust

I find that trust is a concept I grapple with more in fantasy baseball than in real life. In general, most of the time, I trust the people I encounter each day. My co-workers, my wife, my kid’s teachers, my dog Maude, and my neighbors. They have all earned the right to be trusted — they have not thoroughly let me down in any meaningful way once, let alone multiple times.

In fact, over the totality of my life, there has only been one person who has burned my trust to the ground.

His name was Jon, he was two grades older than me, and he was a friend of mine. As a second grader, I remember us playing sports together, hamming it up on the playground, he even gave me a stick of Cinn-A-Burst gum once. I liked this kid, and he seemed to like me. Then, one day, when there was a touch football game raging in the street, I made a throw that resulted in a touchdown, and Jon was on the losing end of my deft playmaking abilities. As the recess bell rang, this savage fourth grader grabbed hold of my shoulders and swiftly kneed me in the groin. I dropped like a cartoon character and writhed in pain. When Mrs. Knobloch asked me what happened, I gladly told her. From that day forward, Jon Clark was dead to me. I don’t think we ever spoke again.

In fantasy sports, I’ve found myself going back to the well with several players only to be unintentionally assaulted time and again.

Last week, I added Josh Rojas for maybe the fifth time in the last three seasons. He was hot before I added, got ice cold while rostered, and I should’ve seen it coming. Last Wednesday, I was already shaking my head, wondering why I wasted a move on this guy. He’s like the bad boy in a coming-of-age film — the kind of fellow who’d warrant a mother’s warning: “he’s just going to let you down.” And he always does. I dropped him yesterday before 7 AM for Rockies OF Brenton Doyle, and I have decided to quit Josh Rojas forever.

Looking at the top of my league’s waiver wire this week, I saw a familiar face. One, Alek Manoah, who was excellent as a rookie in ’21, good in ’22 and then the wheels completely fell off last season. I’ve trusted this guy a handful of times in recent years and have been mostly disappointed. In the last year, Manoah has had some shoulder inflammation and control issues and spent a few stints in the minors working on something. I guess I can’t say exactly what he worked on, though throwing strikes that don’t get hammered would be my guess.

His last two starts have come against streaky lineups (Tampa Bay and Minnesota), sure, but the results have been solid. In the last 14 innings, he has 13 Ks and a low WHIP. He’s just 26, was a former 11th overall pick in the draft, and had oodles of prospect hype. Can he get back to his 2022 form? Should we trust him?

I, for one, cannot. Manoah is one in a long line of players I can’t believe in anymore. Trust is a fragile thing in fantasy baseball, but I won’t be adding guys I think might do me dirty. Not even for a piece of Cinn-A-Burst gum. I’m too scared I’ll get a figurative knee to the groin and at 41-years-old, Mrs. Knobloch cannot help me anymore.

Waiver Wire Considerations

Based on stats over the last 14 days and a little statcast digging, I’m into these four players.

Tyler Freeman, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, Cleveland Guardians (26% owned in Yahoo!)
As injuries mount, it’s a good idea to have a guy you can plug into half your roster. His whiff rate is a mere 15.2%, and while he’s not spraying bullets around the ballpark, he’s finding his way on base. Hitting atop the lineup with a .917 OPS last week, Freeman can prove to be a useful add against the Mets and Angels this week.

Jonny DeLuca, OF, Tampa Bay Rays (9% owned in Yahoo!)
I watched him play over the weekend and I like his build, his mustache, his overall approach at the plate and speed on the bases. Last year in AA and AAA the 25-year-old hit .279 and .306 respectively and had a 55:35 K/Walk ratio. Who knows what fantasy baseball hating manager Kevin Cash will do with Jonny, but if he’s playing regularly, he might be a good add. Since his call-up he’s been a five-cat contributor with an OPS of .848.

Nick Gonzales 2B, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates (5% owned in Yahoo!)
He’s currently batting 5th in the Bucs lineup, sports a .866 OPS over the last week, his MiLB stats look good, and his statcast is promising. If you need middle infield help, here’s a fun option on an exciting and competitive young team.

Alec Burleson, OF/1B, St. Louis Cardinals (17% owned in Yahoo!)
He’s shown improvement each year he’s been in the league hitting .188 in a brief stint in 2022, .244 last season and now he’s batting .301. His MiLB numbers look good (.300 over two seasons with an .842 OPS) and his statcast page confirms his .920 OPS last month might be real.

🗳️ Suggestion Box

I love hearing directly from readers, so please vote in the poll to let me know how I’m doing. I hope you have a great Wednesday! See you Friday. 👋